& nbsp; Views on the forecast of graphite market consumption in the second half of 2019
In 2018, the supply of graphite exceeded the demand and the price rose. It is expected that it will not cool down in the second half of 2019. It is likely to be nervous by next spring. In order to analyze the graphite market, the two major market changes of graphite are indispensable. First, export market; First, the demand market of the refractory industry. The demand for graphite in these two markets accounts for 85% of the total market. These two aspects are thermometers that determine the heat and cold of the graphite industry market.
1. The demand for graphite in the international market has not changed much in recent years, and the export is generally about 100000 tons. Last year, the special situation reached 135000 tons. The economic development of several countries that need to import graphite is basically stable, and the demand for graphite will not be affected by big ups and downs. The main consumption countries of graphite are Japan, China, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. According to the general consumption structure, refractory materials account for 26%, casting accounts for 15%, lubricants account for 14%, brake linings account for 13%, pencils account for 7%, other carbon brushes, batteries and expanded graphite account for 25%. The main areas of graphite consumption increase in the future are high-tech industries, such as alkaline batteries, lithium batteries and fuel cells. Of course, high-quality, high-purity and ultra-fine graphite are needed.
To analyze the graphite export situation in the second half of 2019, let's first look at the export situation this year. In the first half of 2004, the graphite export was 53300 tons, a decrease of - 13.6% over the same period. In recent years, the graphite export situation is that in 2000, the flake graphite export was 97700 tons, in 2001, it was 103200 tons, in 2002, it was 105400 tons, in 2003, it was 135500 tons, and in January June 2004, it was 53300 tons. The average growth rate is 6.2%. Based on this, it is predicted that about 110000-120000 tons of graphite will be exported by the end of the year, and it is likely that 60000-70000 tons of graphite will be exported in the second half of the year. According to the growth rate of 6.2%, the annual export of graphite in the second half of 2012 is about 130000 tons, which is basically the same as that in 2003. China's graphite is mainly exported to the United States and Japan. The United States imported 33% of the total graphite from China in 2003. In 2010, it imported 21000 tons from China, while in 2012, it imported 28800 tons, an increase of 32%. China's Graphite exports to Japan increased by 3.6% in 2003 compared with 2012, exports to the Netherlands increased by 48%, and exports to South Korea decreased by 27%. China is a major exporter of graphite and magnesia for magnesia carbon bricks. In order to reduce pollution, foreign businessmen have changed the way from importing raw materials in the past to importing magnesia carbon bricks. Moreover, some foreign enterprises have directly invested in China to build factories, greatly reducing the export of graphite for magnesia carbon bricks. It is worth mentioning here that Mexican graphite is exported to the United States, but Mexico also imports a large amount of Chinese graphite every year. This phenomenon shows that Mexico has transferred Chinese graphite, and also shows that our graphite price is low.

2. How much graphite can the refractory industry demand. Recently, Chairman Sun of the special committee led a team to visit the magnesia carbon brick factory to learn about some refractory industry conditions. The refractory industry is directly affected by the iron and steel industry. The output of magnesia carbon brick has steadily developed, and the quality of brick has also steadily improved. More than 5000 furnaces were commended by the Ministry of metallurgy in the past, but now there are more than 30000 furnaces.
The large increase of furnace life means that the consumption of magnesia carbon brick is greatly reduced. However, the great development of the iron and steel industry has led to the great development of the refractory industry. The output of magnesia carbon brick has greatly developed, resulting in a situation where production exceeds sales and supply exceeds demand. The production capacity of magnesia carbon brick in China is more than 1 million tons. However, according to the introduction of the magnesia carbon brick factory, the domestic consumption last year was about 300000 tons, and the export accounted for about 40% of the sales. If calculated according to this amount, the graphite required for magnesia carbon brick (export plus domestic) is more than 70000 tons, excluding the protective slag. In 2004, China's steel output was reported to be 260 million tons, requiring about 340000 tons of magnesia carbon bricks and more than 40000 tons of graphite, plus 80000 tons of exports. The production of China's steel industry in the second half of 2018 is determined by the consumption of eight major enterprises, namely, construction, machinery manufacturing, automobile, shipbuilding, oil and gas, home appliances, containers, etc. these eight enterprises account for 82% of the total steel production. According to the prediction of the steel industry, the annual demand of these eight enterprises in the second half of 2018 is 213 million tons. With other demands, it is estimated that the annual steel output in the second half of 2018 will reach 280-300 million tons. From these data, It is not difficult to calculate that the demand for magnesia carbon brick next year will reach more than 400000 tons, and the demand for graphite will be about 90000 to 100000 tons.

Our other user is the pencil industry. The demand for pencils in the domestic and foreign markets has increased slightly. The demand is relatively stable and has not changed much. Last year, China's pencil export volume hit a record high. The demand for pencils in China has increased slightly on the whole, so there is little room for the growth of the output of pencils in China, and it may even decline. Therefore, the pencil industry requires all enterprises to control the output. In 2003, the output of pencils was 6.15 billion pieces, and the domestic demand was 2.15 billion pieces. The export volume is 4 billion pieces, and the active lead is 9.5 billion pieces. The total graphite demand of the pencil industry is about 9000 tons.
In addition, some materials introduced that China needs 6500 tons of graphite for crucible, 1200 tons for forging and 8000 tons for military industry. I think these figures are on the high side. According to these reports, the actual demand for graphite in the international and domestic markets in the second half of 2012 is about 250000-260000 tons.