Analysis of main causes of graphite heat at present
Since the beginning of this year, the graphite industry has continued to show a heat potential, and the supply of flaked graphite has exceeded the demand. The price of products has also reached a new high in the past 10 years. It is preliminarily predicted that the price will increase by more than 20%, or even higher. This situation is very exciting. Therefore, some enterprises produce at full capacity. These have attracted great attention from people in the industry. On the one hand, I hope you will cherish this hard won situation. On the other hand, why is graphite hot? How long can the situation improve? I very much hope that you can sit down and objectively analyze the new situation of the graphite Market and the internal and external reasons for recovery, give new understanding and positioning, and do not blindly expand production.
The graphite market was a little sad in the past few years. For more than a decade, our industry has been wandering in the trough, and the price of graphite has dropped again and again, 40% ~ 60% lower than that in the 1990s. Graphite began to decline in the early 1990s and reached the bottom in 2002. In the fourth quarter of 2003, there was a rebound, and by the first half of this year, the price of graphite had risen by a large margin. Now there is a situation that has not been seen in the past 10 years. I would like to talk with my colleagues about the reasons for this situation for your reference. I think the reason why graphite is hot is mainly due to the decline of production and the improvement of the market in the previous stage.
1. The actual output of graphite in the front stage declined. As the price of graphite has fallen again and again, some enterprises have exhausted their resources, and the continuous deepening of mines has increased the mining cost. This has caused losses for some enterprises and prompted them to reduce or stop production, resulting in a drop in production. In addition, due to the adverse effects caused by the uncontrolled market in recent years, the business concept of the enterprise has changed. In the past, it used to look for the market with products, do it when there was a little profit, and occupy the market when there was no profit. It can be sold in the warehouse sooner or later, and it pursues the concept of quantity. Now it has improved its understanding, and it can not be produced without orders. It has reduced blindness, promoted the decline of the total volume, and gradually standardized the market. According to statistics, the actual output of flake graphite in 2000 decreased from 280000 tons to about 230000 tons in 2003. It was one of the factors that caused the shortage of raw materials.
2. Driven by the improvement of the market. The great development of the iron and steel industry promotes the development of the refractory industry, and directly drives the graphite industry and promotes the improvement of the graphite market. This is an important reason. Because the refractory industry needs graphite, accounting for more than 1 / 3 of the total graphite sales, it is reasonable to say that the development of the graphite industry is driven by the development of the refractory industry.
3. Foreign businessmen shall execute the purchase contract in advance. In addition, due to the cancellation of graphite export tax rebate in China, at the end of 2003, foreign investors were worried that the price of graphite would rise and the purchase contract would be executed in advance, resulting in an increase in graphite demand. In 2003, the export volume of flake graphite reached 135000 tons, an increase of 28.1% over the same period, which can be proved to be rare in recent years. This trend is relatively sudden, and the enterprise's production preparation is insufficient, resulting in the manufacturer handling a large amount of inventory, resulting in a drop in inventory and driving the recovery of the industry.
4. Production is constrained by environmental problems. In 2004, all regions strengthened environmental protection management, limiting and restricting the production of enterprises. For example, due to environmental protection problems in Jixi, graphite enterprises in Jixi District stopped production for rectification. This has intensified the supply-demand relationship in the graphite market, especially the negative ones.
5. Seasonal effects. Winter has arrived, and seasonal production of some enterprises in the north will begin. Some users must have more inventory, which also increases the purchase volume. However, in 2003, enterprises generally had no inventory and lost their ability to adjust. In addition, since the price of graphite increased by a large margin in the second half of this year, foreign investors are also worried that the price of graphite will rise again, and it is likely that the purchasing wind at the end of 2004 will be revived. To sum up, the current situation of graphite is caused. China building materials daily said that "the sun is shining.". Some say that the Black Whirlwind is back. For the high heat in the graphite market this time, is this heat reasonable and normal, and how long can it last? People in the industry are very worried.